The Shifting Back-to-School Economy: What Marketers Need to Know Now

The back-to-school season isn’t just a shopping rush; it’s a high-stakes moment where consumer priorities, habits, and emotions collide. And it’s starting earlier than ever. The National Retail Federation (NRF) estimates that almost two-thirds of back-to-school shoppers started purchasing items for as of early July. According to the NRF, half of early shoppers are citing concerns of prices rising due to tariffs.¹ However, there’s still time to reach these shoppers before Back-to-School is over and we have important insights to share that could make all the difference.

Data Axle’s latest survey of 1,000 U.S. consumers peels back the layers on how families are really thinking, feeling, and spending during this pivotal time of year. The findings go far beyond surface trends, uncovering the motivations and behaviors that shape buying decisions. For marketers and advertisers, this is more than data; it’s a roadmap for smarter strategies, sharper messaging, and the kind of market leadership that turns seasonal campaigns into year-round wins.

A glimpse inside the minds of consumers

Knowing your consumer is important, and our survey results paint a picture of what 2025’s back-to-school shopper is prioritizing this year.

Stretching dollars and pinching pennies

The 2025 back-to-school shopper is budget-conscious. Only 9% of consumers mentioned they don’t have a limit for back-to-school spending, implying that a whopping 91% of consumers are on a budget. Over 50% of consumers are considering abandoning ship on their favorite brands in favor of more affordable or store-brand options and 40% of consumers said that they have delayed other financial obligations to afford back-to-school shopping.

What does this mean for advertisers? Lead with value.

Consumers are looking to save money, which means brand loyalty is going to be the first thing out the window. In fact, 40% of consumers outright said they are willing to forego preferred brands in order to save money on back-to-school shopping. Advertisers cannot depend on brand reputation to get them through the 2025 back-to-school season. Here’s what you can do to keep your current customers and attract new ones.

1. Shore-up your rewards and loyalty programs

62% of consumers are relying on these programs to maximize their back-to-school savings. Make sure your rewards are communicated well, at a good cadence and on the channel preferred by your customers and look-alike audiences. If you have a high open rate, make sure to email the benefits of your rewards program. If your audience are big Instagram scrollers, make sure you are hitting their feeds with a mix of organic and sponsored posts.

2. Emphasize promo codes and digital coupons

60% of consumers are on the hunt for promo codes and digital coupons. Advertisers need to put discounts and promo codes front and center on all their communications. Pop-up windows touting savings, making the most of your hero space and adding cart promotion banners are all best practices for website visitors. Are your potential customers using your mobile app? Make sure to utilize notifications to make sure you communicate potential savings.

3. Target smarter for bigger wins with AI-powered audiences

Audience segmentation is a proven performance driver. A study by McKinsey found that personalization through segmentation can deliver 5–8x ROI and boost sales by 10%+, while eMarketer reports programmatic campaigns using advanced targeting see conversion lifts of up to 60%.² In today’s budget-conscious, privacy-focused environment, curated, data-driven audience strategies remain one of the most effective ways to maximize return without overspending.

Data Axle’s AI-powered audiences are the best way to reach the right shoppers, at the right time, on the right channel. We’ve compiled some of the best audiences for back-to-school shopping.

• Specialty Shoppers & Bargain Hunters: We know belts are tightening in 2025, and 28% of consumers in our survey stated that they are sticking to a strict budget. This audience is made up of individuals who have shown an interest in specialty shopping and bargain hunting by using coupons in wholesale clubs, organic food stores, catalogs, and more, both instore and online.
• Families with Elementary School Kids (Ages 5–12): Households with school-age children, ages 5 to 12. When it comes to back-to-school, this is arguably your most important target audience. It may seem basic, but we know that outdated or incomplete data will lead to advertisers wasting resources on prospects who don’t have anyone to shop for.
• Teens at Home (Ages 13–17) – TV Optimized: Connected TV (CTV) continues to grow in 2025, now capturing over 40% of total TV viewing, back-to-school advertisers have a prime opportunity to reach teens and the parents who sit on the couch with them. This segment, optimized for TV campaigns, focuses on households with teens ages 13–17.
• High School Graduation Households: Families with a graduating senior. These families are ready for messaging around milestone moments, gifts, and next life stage needs – but they still need to get their seniors ready for their last year in school!
• Big Toy Buyers – $500+ Annually: The 9% of consumers who reported they don’t have a limit on their spending this year? You can find them here. This audience includes parents, grandparents, and gift-givers who regularly invest in play, education, and entertainment for kids. These individuals are high-value shoppers in the children’s retail space, spending over $500 a year on kids’ toys.
• Parent-Influenced Shoppers: Our survey found that 21% of parents will buy whatever their children want, even if it’s outside of their budget. We’ve put together an audience of parents whose purchasing decisions are deeply influenced by their children. This segment includes individuals who enjoy watching TV shows with their kids, rely on advertising to guide product choices, and are compelled by their children’s brand preferences and requests for non-essential items.

Need more guidance for your back-to-school campaigns or want to learn more about our AI-powered audience segments? Get in touch.

_{¹ https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/back-to-school-season-begins-early-for-majority-of-shoppers
² https://impact.com/research-reports/modern-customer-journey-multi-touch-discovery-reas-rrt-imp-ed-nam/}